Niyogin Fintech – Final Investment Outlook (2025–2028)

📊 Current Snapshot (Aug 2025)

  • Share Price: ₹69.5–70 (recent rally ~6–7%)

  • 52‑Week Range: ₹39.8 – ₹76

  • Market Cap: ~₹770–780 crore

  • Underlying Performance: Q1 FY26 revenue ~₹86 cr (+70% YoY), PAT loss ₹1.85 cr. Multi‑quarter EBITDA turning positive.

  • Valuation: PB ~2.2–3.5x; P/E negative (loss-making).

  • ROE / ROCE: ~–5% / –2–3%.

🚀 Growth Engines & Revaluation Catalysts

  1. Embedded Finance Acceleration: Indian embedded finance growing ~38% CAGR; Niyogin well-positioned.

  2. iServeU Scale: B2B payments arm processed ~₹43,760 cr GTV in FY24; key clients include Canara, Central Bank, BoM.

  3. Capital Infusions: Strategic funding (₹235 cr+) + Morgan Stanley block deal validated story.

  4. iServeU Demerger / Listing: Potential value unlocking event in FY26–27.

  5. NBFC Lending Growth: AUM crossed ₹320 cr; target ₹500+ cr FY26 with low NPAs.

⚠️ Risks

  • Losses Persisting: PAT still negative despite revenue growth.

  • Credit Risk: MSME lending carries default risk despite EDI repayments.

  • Regulatory Changes: RBI tightening in co-lending may increase compliance costs.

  • Execution Risk: Need sustained client onboarding & order book conversion.

🎯 Entry & Exit Strategy

  • Entry Zone: ₹65–70 → Accumulate gradually on dips.

  • Add More: If AUM crosses ₹400–500 cr and EBITDA remains positive.

  • Exit Zone: ₹90–100 → Partial exits on iServeU demerger / strong lending profitability.

  • Re-entry: On corrections due to market sentiment, not structural weakness.

🔓 Value Unlocking Events

  • 2025–26: Capital raise, new partnerships, gig expansion.

  • 2026–27: iServeU demerger/listing → rerating trigger.

  • 2027: AUM breaching ₹750+ cr; sustained PBT positive.

  • 2028 onwards: International expansion, BNPL, Credit-on-UPI, SaaS monetisation.

⏳ Timeline (2025–2028)

2025 Q3–Q4: Entry @ ₹65–70; triggers – AUM scaling, partnership announcements.
2026 Q1–Q4: Add if AUM > ₹400–500 cr; monitor EBITDA consistency.
2027 Q2–Q3: Partial exit if stock hits ₹90–100 on iServeU demerger/listing.
2027 Q4–2028: Hold balance if NBFC profitability stabilises; re-entry on dips.
2028 onwards: Evaluate global expansion & new product monetisation.

📌 Allocation (₹8 Cr Portfolio)

  • Target Exposure: 1–2% → ₹8–16 lakh.

  • Initial Holding: ~₹1 lakh (small).

  • Recommended Scaling: Phase into ₹8–10 lakh by FY26 triggers; max cap ₹16 lakh.

✅ Verdict

Niyogin Fintech is a high-beta fintech disruptor at the inflection of profitability and platform scale. With strong order book growth, a possible iServeU demerger, and NBFC AUM expansion, the next 2–3 years could unlock exponential growth.

Best approach: Enter gradually at ₹65–70, add on execution triggers, and trim at ₹90–100 around major events. Keep exposure disciplined (~1–2% of portfolio).

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