ONGC: facts double-checked (as of Aug 28, 2025)

• Production share (India): Many outlets still cite ONGC at “~70% of oil and ~84% of gas.” That’s a widely repeated stat; Oilprice summarized it again last week. Use it as indicative, not exact, since field declines and restarts can shift the mix year to year. (OilPrice.com)

• Mumbai High/BP technical services: ONGC has engaged BP to lift output at Mumbai High; guidance has ranged from “up to 60%” in total output to specific targets like +44% oil and +89% gas with visibility into FY2027–FY2028. Treat the higher end as ambition and the 2027–28 window as the realistic milestone band. (Reuters)

• New refinery (Jamnagar): ONGC is studying a 200–240 kbpd greenfield refinery at Jamnagar; this is at pre-feasibility, not an approved project yet. Watch for an FID before you underwrite it into numbers. (Reuters)

• Trading unit (group-level): ONGC is setting up a trading unit to centralize crude & refined products across ONGC/MRPL/HPCL — the group handles ~100 MMT of oil flows, so even small trading margins are meaningful. This is in early evaluation now. (Reuters, Yahoo Finance, ThePrint)

• Renewables push: Target remains 10 GW by 2030; FY25 capex guidance around ₹3,500 cr toward green builds/bolt-ons. ONGC Green acquired PTC Energy (288 MW wind) in Mar’25; ONGC has also been linking up with Ayana/NTPC Green for scale. (ETEnergyworld.com, The Economic Times, Reuters)

Russia exposure: what’s real and what’s next

• Current stakes & operations: ONGC Videsh (OVL) retains 20% in Sakhalin-1 and stakes in the Vankor and Taas-Yuryakh assets; operations continue under Russia’s post-2022 structure (Rosneft subsidiary as operator for Sakhalin-1). (BOE Report)

• Cash flows stuck: Dividends from Russian assets have faced repatriation hurdles since 2022; press tallies suggest stuck dividends for Indian PSUs have grown (hundreds of millions of USD, with estimates up to ~$900 m collectively). This is a policy/FX-channel issue, not an asset-integrity issue. (The Indian Express)

• Near-term policy shifts: In mid-Aug’25, a Kremlin decree outlined conditions for foreign investors (including a path for Exxon’s possible return) — effectively tighter terms (support on sanctions relief, equipment, and financing). This doesn’t remove Indian/Japanese stakes but signals that governance & cash movement will remain conditional. Expect slow, negotiated progress on dividends and cost-sharing mechanics. (Reuters, Energy Intelligence)

Value-unlock map (what to actually watch)

1. Mumbai High ramp (execution)

   • Milestone: clear quarter-on-quarter uptick from BP-assisted workovers/sub-surface interventions; management reiteration of the FY27–FY28 ramp window.

   • Stock implication: supports multiple expansion if oil stays stable and decline rates flatten. (Reuters)

2. Trading unit go-live

   • Milestone: formal incorporation + initial volumes disclosed (e.g., % of MRPL/HPCL imports routed via desk).

   • Stock implication: higher & smoother marketing margins across the group; reduces earnings volatility. (Reuters)

3. Renewables bolt-ons toward 10 GW

   • Milestone: further acquisitions/PPAs beyond PTC Energy (288 MW); visibility to >1 GW operational by FY26.

   • Stock implication: optionality for green platform monetization (spin-out/InvIT or strategic partner). (Reuters, ETEnergyworld.com)

4. Jamnagar refinery — FID or strategic partner

   • Milestone: move from pre-feasibility to FEED/FID; clarity on partner, capex, and offtake alignment with HPCL/MRPL.

   • Stock implication: integrated value chain, stable GRMs, potential trading synergies. (Reuters)

5. Russia cashflow resolution

   • Milestone: mechanism to utilize or repatriate dividends (e.g., rupee-rouble settlement or offset against equipment/services).

   • Stock implication: unlocks non-trivial cash, reduces equity risk discount on OVL. (The Indian Express)

Risk check (what could dent the thesis)

• Oil price downcycle (Brent drift to low-60s narrows realizations). Keep an eye on EIA draws and seasonal demand softening. (Reuters)

• Russia governance/FX: even with decree changes, cash mobility may remain constrained for longer than the market hopes. (Energy Intelligence)

• Project slippage: Jamnagar and Mumbai High timelines are not de-risked until FID/field work hits cadence. (Reuters)

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What to do with this (actionable triggers)

• Add on execution beats:

  • Two consecutive quarters showing Mumbai High volume uptick, or formal trading unit launch with disclosed throughput. (Reuters)

• Hold through policy noise if Russia dividends remain stuck but operations are stable; de-risk by scaling only on domestic execution (Mumbai High + trading desk) and renewables build. (The Indian Express)

• Trim on euphoria:

  • If Jamnagar gets FID and oil rallies, pricing may get ahead of fundamentals — consider partial profit-taking into that strength. (Reuters)

If you want, I can fold these verified points back into your ONGC blog and mark each catalyst with a quarter/half-year timeline so it’s crystal-clear what to track and when.